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The far western Chinese province of Xinjiang is a tense place at the best of times. Around half of the population are Uighurs, a Muslim ethnic minority that has long chafed under highly repressive Chinese rule, and it shares long borders with both Afghanistan and Pakistan, home to jihadist movements such as the Taliban and al-Qaeda. In the build-up to the Beijing Olympic opening day of August 8th, normally tight security in the region has been ratcheted up even more; in recent months, senior Chinese officials have boasted of capturing and jailing scores of would-be separatists.

Given that the entire province was under virtual lockdown, the scale and ferocity of an August 4 attack on police in the city of Kashgar that left at least 16 soldiers dead and an equal number wounded was particularly shocking. The incident will undoubtedly cast a pall over the beginning of the Games and has also underlined fears of further such events aimed at exploiting the media spotlight currently focused on China.

Accounts of the attack were still conflicting on Monday afternoon, but according to official Chinese media reports, two unidentified men drove vehicles — one of which may have been a dump truck — into a squad of border police conducting morning exercises. After explosions that may have been caused by grenades or bombs attached to the vehicles, the two men reportedly started attacking the surviving soldiers with knives before being subdued and arrested. Authorities said the number of dead and wounded was still being confirmed.

The incident is the first fatal attack in the region by what are presumably separatist fighters in over ten years. In 1997, three bombs exploded on buses in the provincial capital Urumqi, killing nine and injuring 74. During the 1980s, militants routinely targeted police stations, military bases and similar targets, but such attacks stopped in the 1990s as Chinese control of the region solidified and was extended down to the village level, says Nicholas Bequelin, a China researcher with New York-based Human Rights Watch. Bequelin, who wrote his Ph.D. thesis on the separatist movement in Xinjiang, says the latest attack underscores the "complete failure" of China's heavy-handed policies in both Xinjiang and Tibet. "We have to watch the government's reaction carefully," says Bequelin. "They shouldn't use this as an excuse to become even more oppressive. If people don't have the space to express the grievances they will be driven to support more extreme means of demonstrating their discontent."

Chinese security officials have repeatedly stated that the possibility of a terrorist attack by Xinjiang separatists is the greatest threat to the Olympics. Beijing has invariably pointed to a group called the East Turkestan Islamic Movement as posing the greatest threat of violence, though in recent weeks, Xinjiang officials have simultaneously asserted that the situation in the province was under control. Counter terrorism experts generally say the East Turkestan Islamic Movement boasts no more than 40 fighters under active training, most likely in the tribal areas of Pakistan that border Afghanistan, where they allegedly have ties to groups directly linked to al-Qaeda.

In late July, a previously little known group calling itself the Turkestan Islamic Party released a video claiming it carried out several fatal bombings in China in recent months. The group's self-described military commander, Seyfullah, said on the video that it was responsible for incidents in Shanghai in early May and in the southern city of Kunming on July 21 that killed a total of five people. He also threatened to carry out further attacks during the Beijing Olympics. Terrorism experts met the claims with skepticism and Chinese police denied the explosions had any Xinjiang connections.

While details of the incident remain vague it will be hard to assess the exact significance of this attack, Bequelin says, but there's no doubt that it represents a resurgence of militant activity in Xinjiang, which could have troubling implications for the future. "The critical thing we need to know is if these were militants who received training or other help from abroad," he says. "The concern is that China could get drawn into the battle with global jihad."

• Simon Elegant / Beijing
• The incident will undoubtedly cast a pall over the beginning of the Olympic Games and has also underlined fears of further such events taking place